This four-game stretch against teams with losing records was a golden opportunity for the Seahawks to rack up victories and keep pressure on New Orleans and Green Bay in the race for the NFC’s top seed.
Instead, it produced one of the most humiliating defeats in recent franchise history.
Seattle fell flat on its face Sunday afternoon with an ugly 17-12 loss to the Giants, who pulled one of the biggest upsets of the NFL season.
New York entered with a 4-7 record and as a 10.5-point road underdog. The Giants were starting a journeyman backup quarterback in Colt McCoy, who hadn’t won a game as a starter since 2014. This seemed like a massive mismatch on paper.
But Russell Wilson and the Seahawks fielded one of their worst offensive performances in years, failing to score a touchdown until past the midway point of the fourth quarter. And Seattle’s defense failed to stop the run at key moments, allowing a mostly one-dimensional Giants attack to take the lead for good with a pair of third-quarter touchdowns.
With the stunning loss, the Seahawks threw away any realistic chance at the NFC’s No. 1 seed and lone first-round bye. Their NFC West lead is also gone, with the Rams now in first place by virtue of the head-to-head tiebreaker.
But even more concerning than the potential playoff-seeding damage was the abysmal display from this once-powerful offense. Wilson & Co. need to sort out their issues and get back to playing at an elite level for this team to have any legitimate shot at a Super Bowl run.
Here’s a look back at some of the key storylines and takeaways from one of Seattle’s most disappointing losses of the entire Pete Carroll era:
WHAT’S GOING ON WITH WILSON AND THE OFFENSE?
Those high-scoring onslaughts from Russell Wilson and the Seahawks earlier this season sure seem like a long time ago.
Seattle’s offense mustered just 10 points Sunday and didn’t find the end zone until the final seven minutes of the game. After driving downfield for a field goal on their opening possession, the Seahawks didn’t take another snap inside the Giants’ 35-yard line until midway through the fourth quarter. Seattle finished the afternoon with a season-low 4.7 yards per play.
Sunday’s debacle was clearly the low point of the season for the Seahawks’ offense, especially considering how elite the unit was earlier this year. But these struggles were far from an isolated incident. Seattle has been on a considerable offensive decline for quite some time now.
Through their first eight games of the season, the Seahawks averaged a league-high 34.3 points per contest and 6.5 yards per play. They scored 30-plus points in seven of their first eight games. And they averaged at least 6.0 yards per play in six of their first eight games.
But over their last four games, the Seahawks have averaged just 19.8 points per contest and 5.0 yards per play. They haven’t reached 30 points or 6.0 yards per play in any of those four games. In the last two games, they’ve averaged less than 5.0 yards per play.
And some of their offensive struggles go beyond just the last four weeks.
In the Week 5 comeback win over Minnesota, the Seahawks were held scoreless in the first half and benefited greatly in the second half from their defense forcing turnovers that resulted in short fields. In the Week 7 loss to Arizona, the Seahawks followed one of their greatest first halves in franchise history by scoring just seven points combined in the second half and overtime. And in the Week 9 loss to Buffalo, a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns padded the stats and helped mask what was an otherwise underwhelming offensive performance.
There likely are many factors that have contributed to Seattle’s offensive decline. But here’s a closer look at three interrelated causes that have had a major impact:
Russell Wilson’s uncharacteristic slump: After starting the season on an MVP-level tear that had him on pace to break Peyton Manning’s single-season record for touchdown passes, Wilson’s play has declined dramatically.
Over the first four games, Wilson averaged 9.4 yards per pass attempt and totaled 16 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. He had a Pro Football Focus offensive grade of 95.0 during that stretch.
Over the next four games, Wilson averaged 7.9 yards per pass attempt and had 12 touchdown passes, six interceptions and an 81.5 PFF offensive grade.
And over the last four games, Wilson averaged 6.8 yards per pass attempt and had just four touchdown passes, three interceptions and a 66.9 PFF offensive grade.
In fact, Wilson has received a PFF offensive grade of less than 55 in three of his last five games. Prior to that, he’d gone 29 consecutive games without an offensive grade below 55.
The beginning of Wilson’s struggles coincided, more or less, with an uncharacteristic rash of turnovers that included three multi-interception games over a four-game stretch from Week 7 through Week 10. Prior to that, Wilson had gone 39 consecutive games without throwing multiple interceptions in a contest.
Some of those interceptions weren’t his fault, but many of them were — often as a product of poor decision-making, or simply trying to do too much. Whatever the case, that midseason stretch of turnovers seems to have made Wilson much more tentative and risk-averse than usual.
Wilson didn’t throw an interception against Arizona in Week 11 or Philadelphia in Week 12, but seemed noticeably more cautious than normal in both games. That tendency was even more pronounced Sunday against the Giants, as Wilson appeared more timid and indecisive than at perhaps any other time in his NFL career. There were at least several instances where he took sacks after holding on to the ball far too long. In addition, he was off-target on at least a handful of throws — a rarity for one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the game.
Wilson is simply out of sorts right now and not playing anywhere near his usual elite level.
The pass protection’s decline: Wilson’s struggles have coincided with key injuries along the offensive line, which in turn have contributed to decreased effectiveness in pass protection.
Starting center Ethan Pocic was out for both the Week 10 and Week 11 games, which forced the Seahawks to shuffle their offensive line for both contests. Starting right tackle Brandon Shell then missed the last two games, and an injury to his backup resulted in third-stringer Jamarco Jones starting at right tackle Sunday. And when Jones exited with an injury in the fourth quarter, fourth-stringer Chad Wheeler filled in.
Those injuries have had a definite impact on Seattle’s pass protection. The Seahawks received a Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade above 70 in four of their first five games, but haven’t reached that mark in any game since. And after receiving a pass-blocking grade below 60 only once in their first eight games, they received a sub-60 grade in three of their last four contests.
The improved pass protection earlier this season was a significant factor in Wilson’s success. In five of the last seven seasons, Seattle ranked 30th or worse in PFF’s pass-block grading. Prior to this season, the Seahawks had never ranked above 18th in that metric during the Wilson era.
But through the first five weeks of this season, Seattle ranked 12th in pass-block grading. After spending years having to evade frequent onslaughts of heavy pressure, Wilson was finally reaping the benefits of above-average pass protection for once in his career. During his early-season tear, he looked more comfortable in the pocket than he ever has.
However, as the pass protection declined over the last month or so, Wilson’s sack rate went up. After being sacked 2.7 times per game over the first seven contests, he’s been sacked 4.2 times per game over the last five contests — including five times by the Giants on Sunday. Not all of those sacks were the offensive line’s fault. But Wilson has been under siege more often lately, and he looks visibly less comfortable in the pocket as a result.
A lack of play-calling adjustments: Earlier this season, Seattle caught opposing defenses off-guard by passing considerably more often on early downs than ever before in the Pete Carroll era. Wilson and the Seahawks also took advantage of frequent man coverage in the secondary, especially when it came against rising superstar receiver DK Metcalf.
The result was massive success in the deep passing game — which also happens to be Wilson’s greatest strength. Over the first four games of the season, Wilson was an astounding 11-of-17 for 430 yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions on throws targeted 20-plus yards downfield, according to charting from NFL’s Next Gen Stats. He averaged a whopping 25.3 yards per attempt on such throws during that stretch.
But as the season wore on, defenses adjusted and have prioritized taking away Seattle’s deep passing game. That was the case against the Rams and Giants, who both used frequent two-deep safety looks in an effort to take away the deep shots Wilson excels at. As a result, Wilson’s deep-ball stats have dropped considerably.
Over the second four-game stretch of Seattle’s season, Wilson was 7-of-22 for 270 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions on throws targeted 20-plus yards downfield. He averaged 12.3 yards per attempt on such throws during that stretch — which was nearly half of what he averaged over the first four games.
And over the last four games, Wilson was just 5-of-15 for 160 yards, two touchdowns and one interception on throws targeted 20-plus yards downfield. He averaged 10.7 yards per attempt on such throws during that stretch.
When defenses take away the deep areas of the field, it would make sense for Seattle to switch to more of a quick passing game that focuses on underneath routes. A quick passing game would also be a good way to neutralize a strong pass rush, as it gives the quarterback quicker options to get rid of the ball before pressure arrives. But lately, including on Sunday, the Seahawks have often failed to adapt to the different ways defenses are playing them.
The NFL is a league of making adjustments. When a team has success with something early in the season, opposing teams will do everything they can to find the antidote. And now, those opposing teams have found a blueprint to slow down Seattle’s offense. Defenses have adjusted. It’s now up to offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer to counter with adjustments of his own to put his players in better positions to succeed.
FOURTH DOWN HAUNTS SEAHAWKS AGAIN
Fourth down has not been kind to the Seahawks over the last two weeks.
Last week against Philadelphia, Seattle had two failed fourth-down attempts in the first quarter. The first was a disastrous fourth-and-goal fly sweep to receiver David Moore at the 2-yard line that got blown up for a 5-yard loss. And just minutes later, Russell Wilson was sacked on a fourth-and-2 from the Philadelphia 37-yard line.
Those fourth-down failures last week didn’t discourage Pete Carroll from keeping his offense on the field for a key fourth down in Sunday’s game. Trailing 8-5 in the third quarter and facing a fourth-and-inches from their own 48-yard line, the Seahawks elected to go for it.
But instead of a run up the middle, Seattle called a play-action rollout to Wilson’s left that appeared to have running back Chris Carson as the primary target. Carson was tightly covered and Wilson was hotly pursued on the edge, which forced him to spin backward away from the pressure and toss a desperation throw into traffic that fell incomplete. New York then capitalized on the short field and drove for a touchdown to extend its lead to 14-5.
That fourth-down decision was a sharp contrast from another fourth-down situation earlier in the game, when the Seahawks faced fourth-and-6 from the Giants’ 37-yard line early in the second quarter. Instead of keeping the offense on the field or attempting a long field goal with Jason Myers — who hasn’t missed a field goal all season — Carroll chose the ultra-conservative approach of taking a delay-of-game penalty and punting the ball away.
This season, the Seahawks have been far more willing to go for it on fourth downs than in years past. And prior to last Monday night’s game against the Eagles, Seattle had been relatively successful in doing so. But after their recent fourth-down failures, the Seahawks are now 3 of 8 on fourth downs in non-fourth-quarter-comeback situations, and 7 of 13 on fourth downs overall.
RUN DEFENSE COLLAPSES IN PIVOTAL THIRD QUARTER
Despite all the Seahawks’ defensive struggles this season, their run defense has been among the league’s best. Seattle entered Sunday having allowed just 3.7 yards per carry, which was the third-best mark in the NFL.
This figured to be the easiest game of the season thus far for the Seahawks’ defense. With journeyman backup Colt McCoy starting at quarterback, the Giants presented a minimal threat in the passing game. Seattle and its already strong run defense could load the box and take advantage of a mostly one-dimensional New York attack.
There was no reason the Giants should’ve had success running the ball Sunday. And for most of the game, they didn’t. But in the third quarter, New York suddenly broke several big runs on the ground to key back-to-back touchdown drives that were ultimately the difference in the game.
Wayne Gallman keyed the first touchdown drive with a 60-yard run, taking advantage of a bad angle from safety Quandre Diggs to burst down the left sideline into the red zone. Gallman also sparked the ensuing 48-yard touchdown drive with back-to-back carries of 13 and 23 yards.
Outside of those two touchdown drives, the Giants didn’t have a run of 10-plus yards the entire game. And outside of the third quarter, they mustered just 53 yards rushing at an average of 2.7 yards per carry. But on those two third-quarter touchdown drives, the Giants rattled off four 10-plus-yard runs in a span of just six offensive plays. And in the third quarter alone, they totaled 137 rushing yards at a clip of 12.5 yards per carry.
This matchup should’ve been the simplest of tasks for the Seahawks’ run defense. But the group inexplicably collapsed for two series in the third quarter, and it ended up costing Seattle the game.
LOOKING AHEAD
The Seahawks’ loss Sunday essentially eliminated them from contention for the NFC’s top seed and lone first-round bye. Seattle (8-4) is now two games behind NFC-leading New Orleans (10-2) and one game behind Green Bay (9-3) in the race for the No. 1 seed. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Seahawks’ odds of claiming the top seed are down to just 1%.
Sunday’s loss also moved the Rams (8-4) into a tie with Seattle atop the NFC West, and Los Angeles currently holds the tiebreaker by virtue of its head-to-head victory in Week 10. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Rams have a 60% chance of winning the division, while the Seahawks have a 39% chance.
Seattle most likely will have to win the Week 16 rematch against the Rams in order to have a shot at winning the NFC West. The only way the Seahawks could lose that game and still win the division outright would be if they won each of their other three remaining games and the Rams lost two of their other three remaining games.
CVT Sports 