Hawk Watch: 5 key questions for the Seahawks as they enter the final stretch

In recent years, the Seahawks have had a bad habit of playing down to inferior opponents.

It happened just last week, when Seattle suffered a humiliating home loss to journeyman backup quarterback Colt McCoy and the Giants.

The Seahawks made sure it didn’t happen again Sunday.

Seattle took care of business and stomped the winless Jets, cruising past the league’s worst team in a 40-3 rout.

It was a rare blowout victory for the Seahawks, who have had 17 wins by single digits over the past two seasons. It was their largest margin of victory in eight years, dating back to a 58-0 shellacking of Arizona in 2012. 

Seattle dominated the woeful Jets on both sides of the ball, rolling to a 37-3 lead before pulling Russell Wilson and many other starters late in the third quarter. The Seahawks scored touchdowns on five of their first eight possessions, excluding an end-of-half kneeldown. And they held the Jets to a season-low 185 total yards, including just 20 yards in the second half.

The caveat, of course, is that the Jets are horrifically bad. They are just three losses away from becoming the third 0-16 team in NFL history. Even though Sunday’s 37-point margin marked the Jets’ worst loss of the season, this was a case of Seattle simply doing what was expected, rather than making some sort of grand statement. It’d be unwise to glean too much from pummeling one of the worst NFL teams in recent memory.

So instead of focusing on this game, here are five key questions for the Seahawks as they head into the final stretch of the regular season:

JUST HOW MUCH HAS THE DEFENSE IMPROVED?

After an abysmal first half of the season, the Seahawks’ much-maligned defense has performed considerably better over the last month or so. Here are a few stats that illustrate the improvement:

• Over their first eight games, the Seahawks allowed 30.4 points per game and at least 23 points in every contest. Over their last five games, they allowed 16.2 points per game and 23 points or less in every contest.

• Over their first eight games, the Seahawks allowed 455.8 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play. Over their last five games, they allowed 285.6 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play.

• Over their first eight games, the Seahawks allowed 362.1 passing yards per game and 8.1 yards per pass attempt. Over their last five games, the Seahawks allowed 187.2 passing yards per game and 5.9 yards per pass attempt.

Of course, the caveat is that Seattle’s last three games were against the Eagles, Giants and Jets. Those are three of the six worst offenses in the league, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings. Facing quarterbacks Carson Wentz, Colt McCoy and Sam Darnold in consecutive weeks is one of the least intimidating three-game stretches a defense could hope for.

Given the quality of recent opponents, how much has the Seahawks’ defense actually improved? Is it real, or is it simply a mirage?

A look at Seattle’s two games against the Cardinals — who have a slightly above-average offense — suggest the defense has indeed made some real strides.

In their Week 7 matchup against Arizona, the Seahawks surrendered 34 points in regulation and gave up 6.4 yards per play. They allowed 7.5 yards per pass attempt to Kyler Murray and failed to record a single quarterback hit on him. And they gave up 4.8 yards per carry to the Cardinals’ rushing attack.

But Seattle’s defense fared much better in the teams’ Week 11 rematch. In that game, the Seahawks held Arizona to 21 points and 5.0 yards per play. They limited Murray to 6.4 yards per pass attempt and sacked him three times. And they stymied the Cardinals on the ground, holding them to a season-low 57 yards rushing on just 3.2 yards per carry.

Another indicator of the Seahawks’ defensive improvement can be seen from looking at whether they’ve held an opponent above or below that opponent’s season average in a particular stat. That helps show how Seattle’s defense fared against a particular opponent compared to other defenses.

Over their first eight games of the season, the Seahawks held just two opponents below their season scoring average. But since then, Seattle has held each of its last five opponents below their scoring average.

Likewise, the Seahawks held just two of their first eight opponents below their season yards-per-play average. But since then, Seattle has held four of its last five opponents below their yards-per-play average.

Furthermore, the dramatic turnaround of Seattle’s pass rush clearly goes far beyond simply playing an easier stretch of competition.

The pass rush was a glaring weakness earlier this season, when the Seahawks managed just nine sacks in their first six games. But with the midseason acquisition of Pro Bowl defensive end Carlos Dunlap — combined with the return of key pass rushers Jamal Adams and Benson Mayowa from injury absences — it’s been a complete 180. Seattle has 27 sacks in its last seven games, which is five more sacks than any other team in the league over that span. After posting at least three sacks just once in their first six games, the Seahawks have done so in six of their last seven games. The pass rush is simply much better than it was earlier this season.

Overall, there are some strong indications that Seattle’s defensive improvement is real. But until the Seahawks face an elite offense, the degree to which their defense has improved will remain unclear.

Seattle faces another bottom-tier offense this week in Washington, as well as a below-average San Francisco offense in the regular-season finale. But sandwiched between those two games is the pivotal Week 16 NFC West showdown against the Rams, who are ranked sixth in offensive DVOA. That matchup will provide a chance to truly evaluate how much the Seahawks’ defense has improved and where it stands heading into the postseason.  

CAN WILSON RETURN TO MVP FORM?

For the Seahawks to reach their Super Bowl aspirations, Russell Wilson needs to play at an elite level.

Seattle’s superstar quarterback certainly did so earlier this season, when he carved up opposing defenses during an MVP-caliber tear that put him on pace to break Peyton Manning’s single-season touchdown pass record. Over his first four games, Wilson averaged a whopping 9.4 yards per pass attempt and threw 16 touchdown passes and just two interceptions.

But then came a highly uncharacteristic rash of turnovers. Wilson threw seven interceptions over a four-game stretch from Week 7 through Week 10, which exceeded his total from the entirety of last season. And then, perhaps as an overcompensation to his turnover woes, Wilson played much more tentative and risk-averse than usual in the following three games against the Cardinals, Eagles and Giants. That was especially the case in the loss to the Giants, as Wilson seemed more timid and indecisive than perhaps any other time in his NFL career.

Entering Sunday’s game against the Jets, Wilson had received a Pro Football Focus offensive grade of less than 55 in three of his last five games. Prior to that, he’d gone 29 consecutive games without an offensive grade below that mark. He simply wasn’t playing anywhere near his usual elite level.

Wilson had a nice bounceback performance Sunday, completing 21 of 27 passes for 206 yards and four touchdowns to four different receivers. His stats would’ve been even more efficient had David Moore not dropped a perfectly thrown 40-yard deep ball in the second quarter. Wilson did throw an interception, but it came on a spectacular play from safety Marcus Maye on the type of 50-50 ball to DK Metcalf that’s probably worth the risk, given Metcalf’s rare combination of size and athleticism. Overall, Wilson looked confident, decisive, sharp and in rhythm.

It obviously will take much more than a strong performance against the Jets to prove that Wilson has put his midseason struggles behind him. But it was a good start.

CAN SEATTLE PROPERLY ADJUST TO OPPOSING DEFENSES?

Another encouraging sign from Sunday was Seattle’s ability to utilize a quick passing game that focused more on underneath routes.

Early in the season, Wilson and the Seahawks torched opponents with the deep ball. But as the season wore on, defenses adjusted and began to prioritize taking away Seattle’s deep passing game. That was especially the case in the losses to the Rams and Giants, who both used frequent two-deep safety looks in an effort to take away the deep shots Wilson excels at.

Prior to Sunday, Wilson and the Seahawks hadn’t done a good job of countering those adjustments. A quick passing game would’ve made a lot of sense against the Giants, but Seattle stubbornly kept trying to attack the deep portions of the field. The lack of open receivers certainly contributed to Wilson’s indecisiveness in that game, which in several instances resulted in him holding onto the ball too long and taking sacks.

On Sunday, however, the Seahawks came out of the gates with a quick passing game and an emphasis on underneath routes. It put receivers in much better positions to get open, which in turn made things easier on Wilson.

In the coming weeks, Seattle needs to stay flexible in its offensive attack. If opposing defenses continue to try to take away the deep passing game, offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer and Wilson must be willing to attack the underneath portion of the field. And if defenses begin adjusting to that, then it should only open up more area downfield for Wilson to burn opposing secondaries with his deep ball.

HOW WILL THE PASS PROTECTION FARE AGAINST WASHINGTON AND L.A.?

Pass protection will be especially critical for the Seahawks over the next two weeks, with Washington and the Rams featuring two of the most fearsome pass rushes in the NFL.

Washington, led by the dynamic duo of rookie No. 2 overall pick Chase Young and Montez Sweat, is tied for fourth in the league with 40 sacks. And the Rams, highlighted by superstar NFL sack leader Aaron Donald, are ranked third with 42 sacks.

One big question mark for Seattle is the availability of starting right tackle Brandon Shell. Shell returned to the starting lineup against the Jets after a two-game injury absence, but exited late in the first half after reinjuring his ankle. Shell reportedly will be a gametime decision this coming Sunday at Washington.

Shell’s injury situation is the latest of several injuries that have kept Seattle’s full starting offensive line from playing together. Left guard Mike Iupati was sidelined for four consecutive games in Weeks 5-9. Center Ethan Pocic missed back-to-back games in Weeks 10-11, which forced the Seahawks to shuffle their line around for both contests. And then Shell was out for Weeks 12-13. Sunday’s game against the Jets marked the first time since Week 4 that all five of Seattle’s starting offensive linemen had been on the field together. But because of Shell getting reinjured, that continuity didn’t even last a half.

The injuries appear to have contributed to a slight decline in the Seahawks’ pass protection over the course of the season.

Seattle posted a Pro Football Focus pass-block grade above 70 in four of its first five games, but hasn’t reached that mark since. And after just one sub-60 grade in their first eight games, the Seahawks had three consecutive sub-60 grades from Week 10 through Week 12.

Shell’s availability will be perhaps the biggest thing to monitor in the moments leading up to kickoff Sunday. Whether Seattle’s offensive line can ward off these elite pass rushes over the next two weeks will likely be a major factor in the outcome of both games.

HOW COSTLY WILL THE GIANTS LOSS END UP BEING?  

The Seahawks’ humiliating home loss to backup quarterback Colt McCoy and the Giants last week is the type of defeat that can come back to haunt contending teams like Seattle.

It remains to be seen how that upset loss ends up impacting the Seahawks’ playoff positioning. But at the moment, it sure looks costly.

If the Seahawks (9-4) hadn’t stumbled against the Giants, they currently would be tied with Green Bay (10-3) and New Orleans (10-3) for the best record in the NFC. Instead, Seattle is now a longshot in the race for the NFC’s top seed and lone first-round bye. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Seahawks currently have just a 3% chance at the No. 1 seed.

To pull off those long odds, Seattle would need to win each of its remaining three games, and then hope that Green Bay and New Orleans each lose at least one of their two remaining games against NFC opponents.

The Packers’ two remaining NFC opponents are the Panthers (4-9) and Bears (6-7). The Saints’ two remaining NFC opponents are the Vikings (6-7) and Panthers. Green Bay and New Orleans figure to be strong favorites in all four of those games.

The good news for the Seahawks is they are still in control of their NFC West title hopes. Seattle is currently tied with the Rams (9-4) atop the division, but Los Angeles owns the head-to-head tiebreaker by virtue of its win over the Seahawks in Week 10. The two NFC West rivals meet again Week 16 in Seattle, and there’s a strong chance that game will ultimately determine the division title.

The NFC West is still there for the taking. But because of that loss to the Giants, Seattle’s shot at the No. 1 seed and an easier path to the Super Bowl might’ve slipped away.