Hawk Watch: Defense proves it’s for real in NFC West-clinching win over Rams

Sunday’s pivotal NFC West showdown against the Rams was a measuring-stick game for the Seahawks’ surging defense.

Seattle had turned a corner defensively over the last five weeks or so, but that improvement had mostly coincided with a stretch of bad opposing offenses.

So even as the Seahawks rattled off a string of strong defensive performances, it was unclear just how much they had actually improved. Was it truly a dramatic midseason turnaround for this once-beleaguered unit, or was it mostly just a mirage?

Seattle answered that question in emphatic fashion Sunday.

The Seahawks shut down the Rams and kept one of the league’s better offenses out of the end zone during a 20-9 statement victory at Lumen Field that clinched the franchise’s first NFC West title since 2016.

The Rams entered the week ranked No. 7 in Football Outsiders’ offensive DVOA ratings. But in Sunday’s matchup, Seattle held one of the league’s best offenses well below its season average in several key statistics:

• The Rams entered the day averaging 24.6 points per game and had scored at least 16 points in every contest. Seattle limited them to a season-low nine points.

• The Rams entered the day averaging 5.7 yards per play. Seattle held them to just 4.5 yards per play, which was Los Angeles’ second-lowest mark of the season.

• Los Angeles quarterback Jared Goff entered the day averaging 7.3 yards per pass attempt. Seattle limited Goff to just 5.4 yards per attempt, which was his second-lowest mark of the season.

The Seahawks’ defensive performance was also particularly notable given the offensive success head coach Sean McVay and the Rams have had against them in recent years. The Rams had won five of the previous six meetings between the division rivals, while averaging 31.8 points per game and 6.5 yards per play over those six matchups.

This time, it was Pete Carroll’s defense that owned the day.

The Rams drove inside the Seattle 25-yard line just twice all afternoon. And both times, the Seahawks made key stops to keep Los Angeles out of the end zone.

The game’s biggest sequence occurred in the third quarter, when Seattle came up with a remarkable goal-line stand to preserve a 13-6 lead. Star safety Jamal Adams made the stand possible by saving a touchdown with a spectacular chasedown and diving tackle at the 2-yard line. The Seahawks then stuffed the league’s top-ranked DVOA rushing offense on four consecutive run plays, including a dramatic fourth-and-goal stop at the 1-yard line.

Los Angeles threatened again on its next possession with another drive into the red zone. But once again, Seattle’s defense held strong. Rookie defensive end Alton Robinson sacked Goff for a 7-yard loss to help stall the drive, and the Rams were forced to settle for a field goal. Los Angeles never crossed midfield again.

Sunday’s defensive showing would’ve seemed implausible earlier this season, when the Seahawks were regularly giving up 30-plus points and threatening to break NFL records for futility.

Through its first nine games, Seattle had allowed the fifth-most points per game (29.6) in the league and the fourth-most yards per play (6.13). The Seahawks were dead-last in both yards allowed per game (448.3) and passing yards allowed per game (353.3), both of which would’ve been NFL records over the entirety of a season.  

But since then, Seattle has undergone a massive defensive turnaround, beginning with its Week 11 rematch against Arizona. Over the last six weeks, the Seahawks have allowed the fewest points per game (13.7) in the league, the second-fewest yards per play (4.43), the third-fewest yards per game (287) and the third-fewest passing yards per game (189.7).

Yes, those stats were surely aided by the fact that four of Seattle’s last six opponents were the Eagles, Giants, Jets and Washington — each of whom are among the league’s bottom seven teams in offensive DVOA. But the Seahawks held all four of those teams below their season scoring average, which suggests Seattle was playing above-average defense over that stretch.

Furthermore, the recent rematches against the Cardinals and Rams provide a clear look at how the Seahawks’ defense has progressed. In both of those rematches, Seattle’s defense showed significant improvement from how it fared in the earlier matchups against those teams.

In the Week 11 rematch against Arizona, the Seahawks allowed 13 fewer points in regulation and 1.4 fewer yards per play than in the teams’ Week 7 overtime clash. And in Sunday’s shutdown performance against the Rams, the Seahawks allowed 14 fewer points and 1.1 fewer yards per play than in the teams’ Week 10 meeting. Those two examples are a pretty clear indication that Seattle’s defensive turnaround goes far beyond just an easier stretch of competition.

Rather, the defensive surge has stemmed from a confluence of several key factors. The acquisition of Pro Bowl defensive end Carlos Dunlap helped ignite a once-lifeless pass rush that has exploded for 34 sacks over its last nine games, which is the most in the league over that stretch. D.J. Reed, who made his Seattle debut in Week 8 after being waived by San Francisco with an injury designation this offseason, has been a revelation at cornerback. Key players such as star safety Jamal Adams and cornerback Shaquill Griffin have returned from injury to bolster the secondary. And after frequent miscommunications and blown coverages earlier in the season, the defense appears to have cleaned up many of those mistakes.  

Of course, the degree of difficulty will ramp up considerably in the postseason. Over this recent six-game stretch, Kyler Murray was the only above-average quarterback Seattle faced. (As good as the Rams are offensively, Goff doesn’t fall into that above-average category.) For the Seahawks to make a Super Bowl run, they will have to navigate a loaded NFC playoff field that includes quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady.

But after all the struggles earlier this season, Seattle’s defense has shown that it’s no longer a liability. And if Sunday’s performance is any indication, this defense might even be something the Seahawks can lean on come January.

NUMEROUS PLAYERS SHINE ON DEFENSE

Seattle’s defensive success Sunday was a true all-around effort.

The pass rush continued its tear with three sacks — all in the fourth quarter — and 32 quarterback pressures from 12 different players, according to Pro Football Focus. It was part of a stellar afternoon up front for the Seahawks, who had five defensive linemen post Pro Football Focus defensive grades above 75.

K.J. Wright and rookie first-round pick Jordyn Brooks led the way at linebacker, with both playing integral roles in the third-quarter goal-line stand.

And the secondary was highlighted by star safety Jamal Adams, who made a pair of spectacular touchdown-saving tackles on the goal-line stand. Seattle limited the Rams to just three completions of 15-plus yards and none longer than 26 yards.

Seven different Seahawks received PFF defensive grades above 70. And 12 of the 17 players who logged defensive snaps for Seattle received a defensive grade above 60, including eight different starters.

Here’s a player-by-player look at the Seahawks’ biggest defensive standouts on Sunday:

• Jarran Reed: The fifth-year defensive tackle had two fourth-quarter sacks and finished with one quarterback hit and three hurries. One of his biggest plays came early in the fourth quarter, when he provided the initial pressure that forced Jared Goff up in the pocket and led to a 7-yard sack from Alton Robinson that helped limit the Rams to a field goal. Reed posted a 75.9 PFF defensive grade and now has 6.5 sacks this season, the second-most on the team.

• Poona Ford: The third-year undrafted defensive tackle continued his standout season by posting a PFF defensive grade of 79.3, his sixth grade above 75 this year. He made his presence felt by hitting Goff just as he was releasing the ball to force an incompletion in the first quarter. Ford’s 79.3 defensive grade this season ranks No. 9 among all defensive tackles who have played at least 400 snaps.

• Benson Mayowa: Mayowa had six quarterback pressures on just 27 pass rushes, according to PFF. He also had a diving tackle for loss in the first quarter and earned an 81.5 defensive grade.

• Alton Robinson: The rookie defensive end came up with his second big fourth-quarter sack in as many games, bringing down Goff for a 7-yard loss that stalled a drive and helped force the Rams to settle for a field goal. Robinson posted a 76.8 defensive grade and now has 4.0 sacks this season, despite limited snaps.

• Jamal Adams: The superstar safety made a pair of spectacular touchdown-saving tackles during the third-quarter goal-line stand, showing again why the Seahawks gave up so much to acquire him this past offseason. The first came on a remarkable play where he blitzed off one edge, sped across to the other side of the field and chased down running back Darrell Henderson from behind for a shoestring tackle at the 2-yard line. Two plays later, Adams then made another diving tackle at the 1-yard line to prevent a touchdown. He also had a pass breakup earlier in the game that he might have intercepted, if not for the multiple broken fingers he was playing with.

• Jordyn Brooks: The rookie first-round pick had an impressive day, totaling eight tackles on just 28 snaps at linebacker. He played a major role in the goal-line stand, coming up with either a tackle or an assisted tackle on three of the four plays.

• Bryan Mone: The second-year undrafted defensive tackle returned from injury and posted a team-high 82.1 defensive grade in 26 snaps. 

• K.J. Wright: The veteran linebacker was another player who was instrumental in the goal-line stand. He helped stuff Goff on the third-and-goal quarterback sneak, and then helped clog up the lane on the ensuing fourth-and-goal stop at the 1-yard line. Wright also had two pass breakups.

• Quandre Diggs: Less than a week after being named to his first Pro Bowl, the sixth-year safety came up with a diving interception on an inexplicably bad throw by Goff in the second quarter. Diggs now has five interceptions this season, which is the fourth-most in the NFL. He posted a 72.6 defensive grade Sunday.

WILSON, OFFENSE COME THROUGH IN SECOND HALF

After going scoreless for nearly the entire second half last week against Washington, the Seahawks’ offense continued to sputter through most of Sunday’s first half against the Rams.

Seattle managed just a pair of field goals on its six first-half possessions and entered halftime with a mere 116 total yards and just 3.5 yards per play. Russell Wilson had a pedestrian stat line at the break, having completed 10 of 19 passes for just 84 yards and 4.4 yards per attempt. He threw a pass early on that should’ve been intercepted, and he later missed a wide-open Jacob Hollister down the sideline for a potential touchdown.

But the Seahawks’ offense came to life after halftime, mounting a pair of touchdown drives against an elite Rams defense to pull away for the victory.

At the center of it all was Wilson and his playmaking ability.

On the opening possession of the third quarter, Wilson and David Moore sparked Seattle’s offense with a massive completion. Wilson rolled out on the third-and-8 play and appeared to have enough space to scramble for a first down, but instead chose to launch a running pass downfield toward the fourth-year receiver. The gamble paid off, as Moore came down with a leaping 45-yard catch near the sideline.

Two plays later, Wilson used a clever bit of improvisation to convert another third down. Wilson rolled right and put linebacker Troy Reeder in a tough position, forcing the defender to decide between covering him or running back Carlos Hyde. As soon as Reeder left Hyde to pursue Wilson, Seattle’s star quarterback coolly flipped a short pass to Hyde, who rumbled for an 18-yard gain. Wilson then used his dual-threat ability again on the next play, rolling left and scrambling inside the pylon for a 4-yard touchdown run that capped the 70-yard drive and gave the Seahawks a 13-6 lead.

Later on, with Seattle clinging to a 13-9 lead midway through the fourth quarter, Wilson keyed a game-sealing 80-yard touchdown drive. Wilson completed all five passes on the drive for 59 yards, including a 24-yard running pass to Tyler Lockett that put the Seahawks in field-goal range. But they didn’t just settle for three points. Later in the drive, Hollister got open on a third-down wheel route and Wilson floated a perfect 13-yard touchdown pass to the tight end for a division-clinching score. 

Wilson finished 10 of 13 for 141 yards in the second half and accounted for both touchdowns. He completed all eight pass attempts on the two second-half touchdown drives, including four critical third-down conversions.

To make a Super Bowl run, Seattle needs Wilson to perform at an elite level. For the better part of the last two months, he simply hasn’t done so. But what he did in the second half Sunday against a top-tier defense provides some encouragement that perhaps Wilson can regain his superstar form just in time for the postseason.

THE BATTLE FOR PLAYOFF POSITIONING

After clinching the NFC West title Sunday, the Seahawks are assured of no worse than the No. 3 seed in the NFC playoff field. They still have an outside shot at the conference’s No. 1 seed and lone first-round bye, but would need some help in Week 17.

Green Bay (12-3) enters the final weekend of the regular season with the NFC’s best record, sitting one game ahead of both New Orleans (11-4) and Seattle (11-4). New Orleans holds the tiebreaker over Seattle based on a better win percentage in conference games.

The Seahawks face the 49ers (6-9) on Sunday in Glendale, Arizona. The Packers face the Bears (8-7) on the road, and the Saints face the Panthers (5-10) on the road.

Here are the various playoff seeding scenarios for Seattle, depending on how the Week 17 results shake out:

• If Seattle wins and both Green Bay and New Orleans lose, the Seahawks would earn the No. 1 seed and the NFC’s lone first-round bye.

• If Seattle wins and either Green Bay or New Orleans loses, the Seahawks would be the No. 2 seed.

• If Seattle, Green Bay and New Orleans each win, the Seahawks would be the No. 3 seed.

• If the Seahawks lose, they would be the No. 3 seed no matter what.

According to Football Outsiders, the Seahawks have a 6.9% chance of claiming the No. 1 seed, a 27.9% chance at the No. 2 seed and a 65.2% chance of being the No. 3 seed.