Hawk Watch: Seahawks’ defense left searching for answers after demoralizing loss

Heading into Sunday’s game at Buffalo, there were reasons for optimism surrounding the Seahawks’ much-maligned defense.

Seattle was coming off its best defensive performance of the season, having shut down San Francisco for three quarters in a dominant win the week prior. Star safety Jamal Adams was returning after missing four games with an injury. All-Pro pass rusher Carlos Dunlap was making his Seahawks debut.

As poorly as the unit had played this season, there was hope Seattle’s defense might be on the verge of turning a corner.

Those hopes were shattered in the Seahawks’ demoralizing 44-34 loss to the Bills.

Seattle’s defense has never looked more vulnerable under Pete Carroll than it did Sunday, when it surrendered the most points of any Seahawks team during his 185 games since taking over as head coach in 2010.

Seattle entered the day having allowed the most passing yards in NFL history through its first seven games. And while those numbers have been inflated, to some degree, by all the yardage the Seahawks have given up while playing conservatively to protect comfortable late-game leads, this defense sure looked like a historically bad unit Sunday.

Buffalo didn’t even mess around with the run game. Instead, the Bills attacked Seattle’s porous secondary play after play, with Josh Allen dropping back to pass on an astounding 32 of 34 offensive snaps in the first half. And the Seahawks simply didn’t have an answer.

In the first half alone, Allen completed 24 of 28 passes for 282 yards and three touchdowns. He finished 31-of-38 for 415 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions — despite throwing just five passes in the fourth quarter.

Allen played well and made some great throws. But more than anything, this was an indictment of Seattle’s defense. Buffalo receivers were consistently wide-open. At times, it almost seemed more like target practice for Allen than an actual football game.

To be fair, the Seahawks were missing starting cornerback Shaquill Griffin and starting nickelback Ugo Amadi with injuries. Also, starting cornerback Quinton Dunbar tried to play through a knee injury and was clearly nowhere near 100%. As a result, Allen and the Bills picked on him time and time again. Dunbar surrendered seven catches on eight targets for 99 yards and a touchdown before exiting in the fourth quarter, according to Pro Football Focus.

One of the more unusual aspects of this game was that Seattle’s struggling pass rush — which had mustered just 12 sacks through its first seven contests — brought down Allen for seven sacks. And yet, it hardly mattered. The Bills moved the ball with incredible ease all afternoon, scoring five touchdowns and three field goals on their 10 non-end-of-half possessions.

Keep in mind, too, that Buffalo’s offense had struggled in recent weeks. After a strong start to the season by Allen & Co., the Bills entered Sunday having averaged just 18.8 points per game over their previous four contests. That included a dismal performance two weeks ago, when they scored just 18 points and failed to reach the end zone against the winless Jets.

But on Sunday, the Seahawks made Buffalo’s offense look like an all-world attack. And while this was clearly the low point of the year for Seattle’s beleaguered defense, it wasn’t an outlier either.

Here are some stats that put into perspective just how bad the Seahawks’ defense has been:

• Seattle is on pace to allow 5,794 passing yards this season, which would shatter the current NFL record (held by the 2011 Packers) by nearly 1,000 yards.

• Seattle is on pace to allow 7,292 total yards this season, which would break the current NFL record (held by the 2012 Saints) by 250 yards.

• Seattle has allowed 2,897 passing yards through its first eight games. That’s already more than the 2,752 passing yards the Super Bowl-winning 2013 Seahawks allowed over the entirety of their 16-game regular season.

• Seattle has allowed an opposing quarterback to throw for at least 300 yards in six of its eight games. By contrast, the Seahawks allowed that to happen just six times combined over the course of the 2012, 2013 and 2014 seasons (including postseason games).

• Seattle has allowed at least 30 points in four of its eight games. By contrast, the Seahawks allowed 30-plus points just four times combined over the course of the 2012, 2013 and 2014 seasons (including postseason games).

Cleary, the Seahawks’ defense needs to turn things around. Even with the brilliance of Russell Wilson and a high-powered offense that’s averaging a league-high 34.3 points per game, it’s unlikely Seattle can reach its Super Bowl aspirations with the defense performing at this level.

The Seahawks currently rank 24th in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA ratings, which calculate a team’s success on every play while factoring in situation and opponent. And in the 35-year span of DVOA’s database, only one team (the 2006 Peyton Manning-led Colts) has ever won a Super Bowl after finishing the regular season ranked worse than 21st in defensive DVOA.

However, there have been five Super Bowl champions that finished the regular season ranked between 18th and 21st in defensive DVOA (the 2018 Patriots, 2012 Ravens, 2011 Giants, 1998 Broncos and 1993 Cowboys).

So, history shows that the Seahawks don’t need a good defense to win the Super Bowl. They don’t necessarily even need a league-average defense. But they can’t have a defense that’s among the worst in the league.

As great as Wilson and the offense have proven to be, the defense needs to improve for Seattle to make a legitimate Super Bowl run.  

WHAT’S GOING ON WITH THE SECONDARY?  

After acquiring All-Pro safety Jamal Adams and cornerback Quinton Dunbar this offseason, it looked like the Seahawks could have one of the league’s best secondaries.

So far, it’s been a disaster.

As a unit, Seattle’s defense is on pace to shatter the NFL single-season record for passing yards allowed. And from a player-by-player perspective, all four starting defensive backs in the Seahawks’ base defense have performed considerably worse in coverage than they did last season, according to Pro Football Focus grading.

Dunbar ranked second among all cornerbacks in the league last season, with a PFF coverage grade of 89.5. He has plummeted to 99th this year, with a coverage grade of just 45.6.

Shaquill Griffin’s coverage grade has dropped from 13th among all cornerbacks last season (77.0) to 60th this season (57.8).

Adams’ coverage grade has fallen from seventh among all safeties last season (87.5) to 75th this season (49.0).

Quandre Diggs’ coverage grade has gone from a tie for 15th last season (77.2) to 60th this season (54.3).

Injuries are one factor that’s undoubtedly played a significant role in the secondary’s struggles.

Adams missed four games with an injury. Griffin has missed the last two games. Dunbar missed two games earlier this season, and he was clearly hampered Sunday while trying to play through a knee injury. On top of all that, starting nickel corner Marquise Blair suffered a season-ending injury in Week 2 and backup Ugo Amadi has missed the last two weeks.

With the secondary in a constant state of flux, Seattle’s defensive backs haven’t been able to build much continuity. The effects of that seemed evident Sunday, as there appeared to be at least several instances of miscommunication that left receivers wide-open.

But even with the slew of injuries, there’s still too much talent in this secondary for it to be anywhere near this bad. And keep in mind, even in the one full game all four starting defensive backs played together — the season opener against Atlanta — the Seahawks still allowed 450 yards passing to Matt Ryan. These struggles go beyond just injuries.

Some have pointed criticism at third-year defensive coordinator Ken Norton Jr., and there’s probably at least some validity in that. When all four starting defensive backs are severely underperforming compared to their talent level, it’s certainly fair to wonder whether the schemes of Norton and Pete Carroll are failing to put them in the best positions to succeed.

But there’s likely not a silver-bullet fix here. It probably will take a combination of factors.

Seattle’s defensive backs need to get healthy. They need to do a better job of communicating. They need to start playing up to their ability level, or at least somewhere near it — both collectively and individually. And yes, Norton and Carroll need to do a better job schematically.

PASS RUSH FINDS SUCCESS, BUT AT WHAT COST?

The only slimmer of positivity from Sunday’s defensive debacle was Seattle’s struggling pass rush. After managing just 12 sacks in their first seven games, the Seahawks exploded for seven sacks against the Bills.

Defensive tackle Jarran Reed led the way with 2.5 sacks. Star safety Jamal Adams posted 1.5 sacks in his return from injury. Recently acquired defensive end Carlos Dunlap had one sack in his Seattle debut. And the linebacking duo of Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright added one sack apiece.

An encouraging sign was that four of the seven sacks came when sending four or fewer pass rushers. The more pressure the Seahawks can generate with their front four, the less they have to rely on blitzes from their linebackers and secondary that leave the back end of their defense more exposed.

However, after starting the game more conservatively, Seattle’s defense ultimately blitzed a lot on Sunday. It did lead to some sacks, including a pair of drive-ending ones on third down — one of which forced the Bills to settle for a field goal and another that forced them into one of their two punts. But the heavy blitzing also backfired and resulted in some big gains. The Seahawks blitzed with an extra pass rusher on 26 of Buffalo’s 45 passing plays, but generated either a sack or another type of pressure on just 10 plays overall, according to Pro Football Reference. That meant there were a lot of plays where Seattle blitzed and failed to create pressure, thus leaving its secondary more vulnerable. And the Bills took advantage on at least a handful of occasions.

The most notable instance came on a pivotal third-and-16 early in the fourth quarter. The Seahawks had recently trimmed the deficit to 27-20. With a stop, they could’ve forced a long field goal and given the ball back to their offense trailing by either seven or 10 points. Instead, they brought heavy pressure with an eight-man blitz, hoping to come up with a sack to knock Buffalo out of field-goal range. It backfired spectacularly. The Bills dialed up a quick wide-receiver screen for John Brown, who took advantage of all the open space and ran for a 33-yard gain to the Seattle 2-yard line. Buffalo found the end zone two plays later to stretch its lead to 14 points.

Ultimately, Pete Carroll and defensive coordinator Ken Norton Jr. need to find the right balance between blitzing enough to help the pass rush generate pressure, but not blitzing so much that they leave the secondary too exposed.

As detailed here last week, the stats have been mixed as to whether the Seahawks should blitz frequently or not. It certainly depends, at least to some degree, on the opposing quarterback and offense. For instance, Seattle’s defense thrived last week while bringing heavy pressure on San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who was dealing with an ankle injury and who lacks the deep receiving threats other teams have. But in other games, such as Sunday against Buffalo, the results of blitzing were more ambiguous.

Also, when the Seahawks do blitz, they need to do a better job of disguising it. There were at least several times Sunday when they made it too obvious prior to the snap that they were bringing pressure. Blitzes are most effective when they catch the opposing offense off-guard. When they are telegraphed, it makes it easy for the offense to adjust and use the defense’s aggressiveness to its advantage.

WILSON CAN’T RESCUE SEATTLE EVERY WEEK

Russell Wilson has been spectacular this season and is one of the front-runners for the league’s MVP award. But on Sunday, he had his worst performance of the year.

Wilson finished 28-of-41 passing for 390 yards and two touchdowns, but also committed four turnovers — two interceptions and two strip-sack lost fumbles. He now has seven turnovers in the past three games, including his three interceptions in the overtime loss to Arizona.

Yet while Wilson didn’t play well, it’s important to note the context.

Wilson was under siege throughout the game and was sacked five times, including the two strip-sack fumbles. As a result, he appeared more uncomfortable in the pocket than usual. And though the first fumble was primarily Wilson’s fault, the second one was the result of a failed blitz pickup.

And perhaps more importantly, Wilson and the offense were playing catchup from the very beginning. By the time Wilson took his fourth snap, the Seahawks were already in a 14-0 hole. With the way Seattle’s defense was playing, Wilson basically had the pressure of knowing his offense had to score on virtually every possession. That left him taking some chances he probably otherwise would not have.

Wilson’s first interception came on a fourth-and-1 from the Buffalo 5-yard line. There wasn’t anyone open on the play, but with it being fourth down, a throwaway still would’ve resulted in a turnover. So, Wilson threw the ball into traffic to at least give his receiver a chance to make a play, but it was intercepted.

Wilson’s second interception also came in a desperate situation. He was facing a third-and-25 from his own 10-yard line, with Seattle trailing by 14 points in the fourth quarter. Given how poorly his team’s defense was playing, he had to take a risk. It didn’t pay off, as the Bills came up with an interception and scored a game-sealing touchdown two plays later. But the reality is that anything less than a first down on that play would’ve all but ended the Seahawks’ hopes as well.

Even with the four turnovers, Wilson and the offense still scored 34 points. And they could’ve scored more, too. They could’ve kicked a field goal on the failed fourth-and-1 from the 5-yard line in the first quarter, although going for it in that situation was likely the analytically correct move. Wilson also nearly tossed a pair of spectacular off-balance touchdown passes, one of which was just a bit underthrown to Freddy Swain and another of which Tyler Lockett nearly hauled in with a diving catch. In both cases, Seattle settled for a field goal instead of a touchdown.

Throughout the course of his career — and especially over the past two seasons — Wilson has demonstrated an incredible ability to carry the Seahawks and make up for mistakes and deficiencies elsewhere on the team. He’s led plenty of improbable comeback victories in situations like this. But it’s simply not realistic to place that burden on him week after week, and to expect him to rescue the team every single time.

METCALF ON PACE TO JOIN ELITE COMPANY

One of the few bright spots Sunday was yet another big performance by DK Metcalf.

Metcalf caught seven passes for 108 yards and a touchdown, highlighted by a 41-yard reception down the left sideline in the second quarter. The second-year star has topped 90 yards receiving in seven of eight games this season and has caught at least one touchdown pass in six of eight games.

At the season’s midway mark, Metcalf is on pace to finish the year with 1,576 receiving yards and 16 touchdown catches. If he continues at this pace, he would become just the fifth receiver in NFL history with at least 1,500 receiving yards and 15 touchdown catches in a season. The other four are or will be Hall of Famers — Jerry Rice (who achieved the feat three times), Calvin Johnson, Randy Moss and Marvin Harrison.

Metcalf currently ranks second in the NFL in both receiving yards (788) and receiving yards per game (98.5), and he is tied for second in touchdown catches (eight). He is third in yards per catch (18.3) and sixth in yards per target (11.6).

NEXT TWO GAMES ARE PARAMOUNT

The Seahawks close their toughest stretch of the season with two massive divisional showdowns in a five-day span.

Seattle travels to Los Angeles to face the Rams (5-3) on Sunday, and then returns home to host the Cardinals (5-3) next Thursday night. The Seahawks (6-2) hold a one-game lead over both teams in the NFC West.

After those two divisional matchups, Seattle embarks on a four-game stretch against some of the worst teams in football — the Eagles (3-4-1), Giants (2-7), Jets (0-9) and Washington (2-6). The Seahawks then close the regular season against the Rams and 49ers (4-5).

It’s impossible to overstate the importance of the next two games. For one, they will go a long way to determining how the NFC West race shakes out. Also, Seattle doesn’t have much room for error left in the race for the NFC’s top seed — which carries more importance than ever this season, with only one first-round bye per conference under the new playoff format.

The Seahawks are currently in a three-way tie with New Orleans (6-2) and Green Bay (6-2) for the NFC’s best record, with Tampa Bay (6-3) sitting just one-half game behind.

If Seattle sweeps its next two games, it will be in great shape. That would give the Seahawks at least a two-game lead in the NFC West, with a chance to extend that margin during its ensuing four-game stretch against weaker opponents. It also would give Seattle a good chance of taking a 12-2 record into its final two games, which would place it in prime position for the NFC’s top seed.

If the Seahawks split their next two games, they would still be in the heart of the NFC West race. But it would leave them with very little margin for error in the race for the NFC’s top seed.

If Seattle loses its next two games, it would be in serious trouble in the NFC West race and would probably have little chance of claiming the conference’s top seed.

At the moment, the Seahawks have a 60% chance of winning the NFC West and a 26% chance of capturing the NFC’s top seed, according to FiveThirtyEight. That places them slightly behind the Packers (31%) and Saints (29%) in the race for the conference’s top seed.