One month ago, the Seahawks were riding the high of their first 5-0 start in franchise history. They were the NFC’s only remaining unbeaten team. And they were in firm control of the NFC West.
My, how things have changed.
Seattle’s midseason slide continued Sunday with a 23-16 divisional loss to the Rams in Los Angeles, which dropped the Seahawks to 6-3. It was Seattle’s second consecutive defeat, and its third in the last four games. Seattle’s NFC West lead has completely disappeared, with the Cardinals and Rams now tied with the Seahawks atop the league’s toughest division.
And with Arizona coming to town for a pivotal NFC West showdown Thursday night, Seattle doesn’t have much time to lick its wounds.
Here are some of the key storylines and takeaways after another disappointing performance from the Seahawks:
THIS TIME, WILSON DESERVES BULK OF THE BLAME
For the first five games of the season, it was Russell Wilson’s brilliance that led the way and made up for a historically bad defense.
But as of late, Wilson has struggled. And on Sunday, his mistakes cost Seattle the game.
Wilson threw two more interceptions and lost a fumble on a low snap, continuing a concerning turnover trend in recent weeks. After tossing 19 touchdown passes and three interceptions over the first five games, Wilson has nine touchdown passes and 10 turnovers over the last four games. All 10 of those turnovers — seven interceptions and three fumbles — have come in the Seahawks’ three losses.
It’s been an extremely uncharacteristic stretch for Wilson, who typically protects the football very well — especially for how many deep shots he takes downfield.
Prior to this four-game stretch, Wilson had gone 39 consecutive games without throwing multiple interceptions in a contest. But over the last four weeks, he’s had three multi-interception games. And after throwing just five interceptions in 18 regular-season and postseason games last year, Wilson has exceeded that total in the last four games alone.
In the Seahawks’ first two losses, there was plenty of blame to go around outside of Wilson. Seattle’s defense gave up 34 points in regulation against the Cardinals and an alarming 44 points against the Bills. Wilson’s mistakes were far from the only reason the Seahawks lost those games.
The responsibility for this loss, however, lies primarily with Seattle’s star quarterback.
Although the Seahawks’ defense struggled again for a large portion of Sunday’s contest, the unit matched its season low with 23 points allowed. That should’ve been enough for Wilson and the league’s highest-scoring offense to surpass. But after a touchdown on its opening drive, Seattle never found the end zone again, managing just three field goals on its other nine possessions.
Wilson’s biggest mistake Sunday was his first interception, which was one of the worst decisions of his career.
The Seahawks had just taken over at the Los Angeles 27-yard line after a forced fumble by Jamal Adams late in the first half. That gave Seattle a much-needed momentum boost and an opportunity to tie the game with a touchdown. Taking a second-and-5 shotgun snap, Wilson moved up in the pocket and looked as if he was about to scramble. He had lots of open field in front of him and could’ve run for an easy first down.
But instead, Wilson inexplicably lofted a pass across the field toward tight end Will Dissly, who was streaking down the left sideline. Los Angeles cornerback Darious Williams broke on the ball and intercepted it in the end zone, ruining a prime scoring chance for the Seahawks and killing any momentum they had just gained. It was simply a horrendous decision by Wilson, given that he could’ve practically jogged his way across the first-down line.
Wilson’s second interception also was a costly one. Seattle had driven inside the Los Angeles 40 and had a chance to cut into the Rams’ 10-point lead and make it a one-possession game. But on third-and-4, Wilson seemed to lose track of the play clock and took a delay-of-game penalty that backed the offense into a third-and-9. Wilson then tried to force the ball to tight end Greg Olsen on an out route toward the right sideline, but Williams dived in front of the ball and came up with another interception.
It wasn’t just the interceptions, though. Wilson also was off-target on several deep throws. He overthrew an open Tyler Lockett down the right sideline on Seattle’s second drive — although he did have to release the ball early because of pressure. He overthrew an open Freddie Swain for a potential 24-yard touchdown pass in the second quarter. And in the fourth quarter, he overthrew DK Metcalf on a deep pass down the left sideline that could’ve resulted in a first-and-goal situation or even a touchdown.
Those were the types of big plays Wilson was connecting on earlier this season. If he hit just one of those, it could’ve been a different game. But Wilson simply hasn’t been his usual superstar self the last two weeks.
Through the first eight weeks of the season, Wilson had a league-best Pro Football Focus offensive grade of 95.0. Over that span, his lowest single-game grade was 78.8. The last two games, however, Wilson has had offensive grades of 52.7 and 41.4. Those were his lowest offensive grades since posting a 47.4 grade against Washington in Week 9 of the 2017 season.
Yes, Wilson has been dealing with more pressure the last two weeks. He was sacked five times against the Bills and a season-high six times against the Rams. Also, he’s been without starting running back Chris Carson and backup Carlos Hyde for each of the last three games. But more than anything, these struggles are on Wilson. He just hasn’t played well the last two games.
Wilson has gone through slumps like this before, and he’s bounced back each time. This surely will be just a blip in the radar for one of the league’s top quarterbacks.
But with another crucial showdown Thursday night against the Cardinals, the Seahawks need Wilson to snap out of this funk. Seattle has little margin for error, with its defense struggling as much as it is. For the Seahawks to reach their Super Bowl aspirations, Wilson needs to protect the football and get back to playing at an MVP-caliber level.
CARROLL’S QUESTIONABLE FOURTH-DOWN DECISION
On the opening drive of the second half, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll faced a pivotal decision. His team was staring at fourth-and-inches from its own 42-yard line, trailing 17-13. The analytics surely would say to go for it in that situation. So, too, would common sense.
The Seahawks have the highest-scoring offense in the league. Their defense, meanwhile, had struggled for most of the first half and remains on pace to break the single-season NFL record for yardage allowed. If you’re in Carroll’s shoes, shouldn’t you have more confidence in your elite offense gaining a half-foot, rather than your porous defense coming up with a stop?
Carroll didn’t see it that way. Instead, he opted to play it conservative and trust in his struggling defense. The offense went back on the field, but only to attempt to draw the defense offside. When that didn’t work, Seattle took a delay-of-game penalty and punted the ball away. The Rams started with poor field position at their own 12-yard line, but it didn’t matter. They still proceeded to drive 88 yards for a touchdown. Carroll’s decision completely backfired.
Carroll has historically been pretty conservative on fourth downs, but he’s been much more aggressive this season. Excluding late-game comeback situations, the Seahawks have already gone for it on five fourth downs this season. And they converted three of those five attempts into touchdowns, with the most notable being Russell Wilson’s 38-yard touchdown pass to DK Metcalf on fourth-and-5 in the season opener against Atlanta. Overall, Seattle is 7 of 9 on fourth downs this season.
It’s possible Carroll would’ve been more inclined to keep his offense on the field if the Seahawks weren’t missing their starting center and top two running backs. But even when factoring in those absences, the chances of this offense gaining a half-foot in that situation were likely still pretty favorable.
A big part of coaching is playing to your team’s strengths and putting your players in the best positions to succeed. The strength of this team, overwhelmingly, is the offense. To take the offense off the field in that situation and to rely instead on a struggling defense was, to say the least, a questionable decision that’s since drawn lots of scrutiny.
METCALF MOSTLY A NON-FACTOR
DK Metcalf entered Sunday’s game as one of the NFL’s top receivers in virtually every major statistical category. But against star cornerback Jalen Ramsey, Metcalf was basically a non-factor.
Metcalf, who was primarily covered by Ramsey, managed just two catches on four targets for 28 yards. Russell Wilson didn’t even target Metcalf until late in the third quarter. By that point, Wilson had already completed passes to seven other Seahawks. Wilson did target Metcalf on a deep pass down the sideline in the fourth quarter, but the ball was slightly overthrown and went off the star receiver’s fingertips on a diving attempt.
Sunday marked just the second time this season that Metcalf has been held to less than 90 yards receiving. The other time also came against a star cornerback. In the Week 7 overtime loss to Arizona, while primarily being covered by Patrick Peterson, Metcalf had just two catches on five targets for 23 yards.
Though Ramsey did a great job covering Metcalf on Sunday, there appeared to be at least a couple of instances where the standout second-year receiver was open for a potential big gain. With as dominant as Metcalf has been for most of this season, he shouldn’t have gone nearly three quarters without getting a target.
Even after Sunday’s quiet performance, Metcalf ranks fourth in the NFL in receiving yards per game (90.7) and is tied for fourth in touchdown catches (eight). He will get a chance to bounce back and make a statement in Thursday night’s rematch against the Cardinals, when he’ll likely square off again with Peterson.
DEFENSE PLAYS SLIGHTLY BETTER, BUT STILL STRUGGLES
The reality is that things couldn’t have gotten much worse for Seattle’s beleaguered defense after last week’s debacle in Buffalo. The unit looked completely helpless for much of that game and surrendered 44 points — the most ever by a Pete Carroll-coached Seahawks team.
Seattle’s defense looked a little bit better Sunday, especially on the scoreboard. The 23 points allowed matched a season low. But that number was also a bit misleading.
The Seahawks’ defense again looked practically nonexistent on the Rams’ first three possessions, as Los Angeles opened with a 70-yard field goal drive and back-to-back touchdown drives of 77 and 93 yards. Through those first three possessions, the Rams were averaging 8.2 yards per play and Jared Goff had completed 13 of 16 passes for 180 yards.
Seattle did manage to hold Los Angeles scoreless on its next two possessions, thanks to a Jamal Adams forced fumble and a sack that led to a punt. But the Rams made the Seahawks’ defense look toothless again on their first possession of the second half, when they mounted an 88-yard touchdown drive to take a 23-13 lead. So, midway through the third quarter, Los Angeles already had four scoring drives of 70-plus yards.
The good news for Seattle’s defense was that it held the Rams scoreless the rest of the way, forcing punts on each of their final three non-kneeldown possessions. But that doesn’t necessarily tell the full story.
On one of those three possessions, Goff missed a pass to a wide-open Tyler Higbee that would’ve at least given Los Angeles a first-and-goal. And on the latter of those possessions, the Rams were primarily focused on keeping the ball on the ground and running clock, rather than scoring. If Goff had made an on-target pass to Higbee or if the game situation had been different in the closing minutes, this very well might’ve been another 30-plus-point game for the Seahawks’ defense.
FORD QUIETLY COMPILING A STRONG SEASON
Somewhat lost in all of Seattle’s defensive struggles has been the strong play of Poona Ford. The third-year defensive tackle had another notable performance Sunday, posting one sack, two tackles for loss and two quarterback hits.
Ford’s day was highlighted by a pair of key third-down plays. On the Rams’ opening drive, he pressured Jared Goff into a third-and-goal incompletion that forced Los Angeles to settle for a field goal. And in the third quarter, he brought down Goff for a third-down sack that forced a punt.
Over the last four weeks, Ford has been one of the best interior defensive linemen in the league, according to Pro Football Focus. He has a PFF defensive grade of 90.2 over that span, which ranks second among all interior defensive linemen. The only defensive tackle ranked higher than Ford over the last four weeks is Rams superstar Aaron Donald.
Ford has an 81.9 defensive grade for the season, which ranks eighth out of 64 interior defensive linemen with at least 275 total snaps.
MYERS KICKS HIMSELF INTO THE RECORD BOOKS
Jason Myers continued his stellar season with three more made field goals Sunday, including a franchise-record 61-yarder on the final play of the first half. It was the longest made field goal of the season in the NFL and is tied for the 12th-longest in league history, according to Stathead.com. It was just the 23rd made field goal of 60-plus yards in NFL history.
Myers has made all 10 of his field-goal attempts this season and 34 of 35 extra-point attempts. He also has made 21 consecutive regular-season field goals, dating back to last year.
LOOKING AHEAD
With Sunday’s loss, the Seahawks (6-3) dropped into a three-way tie atop the NFC West with the Cardinals and Rams, both of whom have already beaten Seattle once this season. The Seahawks also fell one game behind Green Bay (7-2) and New Orleans (7-2) in the race for the NFC’s top seed and lone first-round bye.
So, just how big is Thursday night’s showdown against the Cardinals? FiveThirtyEight’s simulations help quantify the massive significance of this game.
Currently, the Seahawks are still a slight favorite to win the NFC West. They have a 38% chance of winning the division, according to FiveThirtyEight. The Cardinals are sitting at 32%, followed by the Rams at 30%. Meanwhile, Seattle has just a 12% chance of claiming the NFC’s top seed, trailing both the Packers (39%) and Saints (27%).
If the Seahawks win Thursday night, their NFC West odds jump to 55% and their odds of claiming the NFC’s top seed rise to 18%. But if they lose, their NFC West odds fall to 14% and their top-seed odds to just 2%.
CVT Sports 